Methodology v1
Market condition score
A single number from 0 to 100 describing the conditions measured at the last close. It is deterministic: the same stored data always produces the same score. It is not a forecast, a probability that the market will rise, or advice to buy or sell anything.
Components
| Component | Weight | Rule |
|---|---|---|
| Trend | 25% | Nifty 50 against its 20-, 50- and 200-session simple moving averages, plus whether the 20 is above the 50. Each condition met scores equally; 0 to 100. Needs 50 sessions; the 200-session test is skipped until 200 exist. |
| Breadth | 20% | Share of NSE stocks that advanced among those that moved. 30% maps to 0, 70% to 100, linear between. Half today's session, half the 5-session average. |
| Institutional flow | 15% | FII net (60%) and DII net (40%) in the cash market. Each maps 50 ± 50 × net ÷ scale. With 5+ sessions of history, the 5-session sum is used with a ₹10,000 Cr scale; before that, the latest session with a ₹3,000 Cr scale, and the page says so. |
| Volatility | 15% | India VIX level (70%: 11 or below scores 100, 25 or above scores 0) and its 5-session change (30%: −15% scores 100, +15% scores 0). |
| Global markets | 10% | S&P 500, Nasdaq, Dow, Nikkei 225, Hang Seng, KOSPI, FTSE 100 and DAX. Each index's latest completed session maps 50 ± 50 × change ÷ 1.5%; the component is the average. Sessions older than 4 days and futures are excluded; at least 3 markets are required. |
| Sector strength | 15% | Across the 14 NSE sector indices: half the share that rose on the session, half the share closing above their 20-session average. Needs 8 sectors. |
Combining and missing data
The score is the weighted average of the components that could be measured, re-weighted over the weight that had data. If less than 70% of the weight is available, or trend or breadth is missing, no score is published and the page says “Score unavailable”. A missing input is never replaced with a default value.
Regimes
Strong bullish
80-100
Bullish
60-79
Neutral
45-59
Cautious
35-44
Bearish
20-34
Strong bearish
0-19
Related rules
- Key levels. Classic floor pivots from the last session's high (H), low (L) and close (C): P = (H + L + C) ÷ 3, support = 2P − H, resistance = 2P − L.
- Risk radar. FII selling (latest session ≤ −₹2,000 Cr elevated, any selling moderate; 5-session sum ≤ −₹5,000 Cr once history exists), breadth (5-session advancing share below 40% elevated, below 50% moderate), volatility (VIX ≥ 20 or +20% in 5 sessions elevated; ≥ 15 or +8% moderate), crude (Brent +6% in 5 sessions elevated, +2.5% moderate), rupee (USD/INR +1% elevated, +0.4% moderate), US yields (+20 bp elevated, +8 bp moderate), global (component below 35 elevated, below 50 moderate). Overall: three or more elevated is high; any elevated or three moderate is moderate; otherwise low.
- Unusual activity. Within the Nifty 500: volume ≥ 3× its previous 20-session average; delivery % ≥ 1.5× its average on at least average volume; a move of 5% or more on ≥ 2× average volume; a close at the split-adjusted 52-week high or low.
- Global sessions. A session still trading is never stored as a close. S&P 500 futures are shown as an indicative cue with their quote time and are excluded from the score.
Sources
NSE Market Activity report and bhav copies (indices, breadth, stocks), NSE FII/DII statistics, NSE board-meeting and corporate-action files, NSE trading-holiday calendar, Yahoo Finance (global indices, crude, currency), FRED (US yields). Any change to a rule above changes the methodology version.